ADAPTATION OF WOFOST MODEL FROM CGMS TO ROMANIAN CONDITIONS

This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used by Agri4cast unit of IPSC from Joint Research Centre (JRC) - Ispra of European Commission to conditions of Romania.In contrast with the original model calibrated mainly with statistical average yields at national level, for local calibration of the model the statistical yields at lower administrative units (macroregion or county) must be used. In addition, for winter crops, the start of simulation in the new system will be in the autumn of the previous year. The start of simulation (and emergence day) in the genuine system is 1st of January of the current year and the existing calibration was meant to provide a compensation system for this technical physiological delay.Proposed approach provides a better initialisation of the water balance (emergence occurs after start of simulation), as well as a better account for impact of wintering conditions, but obviously a new calibration for all cultivar dependent parameters is necessary. For the preoperational run, the localized model will use the weather data available till the last day available and the missing data from the rest of the year will be replaced either by the daily values of the long term averages or by the values from a year considered similar with the current one.Proposed adaptations permit a better use of information available on local scale and the localized model may be the core of a regional system for crop monitoring and in the same degree as the original system it can be used as tool for specific researches, such as studying the impact of climate changes

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s

This document reports the results of the analyses performed within the framework of the PESETA3 project regarding the Task 9 - Droughts. The main objective of this task is to provide robust scientific-based information to stakeholders and decision makers on the possible impacts of future climate scenarios on the occurrence of drought events. This report is focused on the analysis of the variations of soil moisture on the European continent, as well as of a soil moisture-based drought severity indicator (DSI), in order to evaluate the possible increase/decrease in future occurrence and severity of soil drought events and the related hazard and risk. Following the guideline of the project, five bias-corrected climatological datasets were used to force the LISFLOOD hydrological model that produces the daily soil moisture maps used in this analysis. These datasets were part of the EURO-CORDEX package and were used to characterize both the present reference period (1981-2010) and the future scenario at the date when a global 2 °C warming will occur according to the RCP8.5 scenario (different for each dataset and around the mid of the century). In the framework of this project, considering the specific purpose of the report, only the RCP8.5 scenario was selected in order to provide a clear indication on the possible future impacts of a strong climate change. The most relevant findings of the analysis depicted a scenario with differences that are statistically significant only on a limited fraction of the continental territories, with negative impacts limited to the Mediterranean and South-western Europe area for both soil moisture (reduction in water availability during both the dry and the wet season) and extreme drought events (increase in drought hazard). Particularly concerning is the increase of drought hazard over areas that are already drought prone and characterized by semi-arid climate, even if a limited impact on drought risk is expected due to the low present exposure and vulnerability of the same regions. Overall, it appears clear from this study that the EU goal to limit the global warming at 2 °C, as compared to the average temperature in pre-industrial times, will confine the variations in drought impacts to a minor fraction of the European continent in the near future, as shown by the obtained results.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook. Proceedings of the October 2017 workshop.

The workshop on the 'EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission’s report on 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary 10-year-ahead projections in EU agricultural commodity markets, and discussing in depth the EU prospects in a global context. This year the workshop was held on October 19-20 in Brussels. The workshop was jointly organised by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). Participants included policy makers, modelling and market experts from various countries, as well as stakeholders of the agri-food industry. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed (arable crops, biofuels, sugar, wine, milk and dairy, meat).JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Report on the Activities Realized in 2010 within the Service Level Agreement between JRC and EFSA, as a Support of the FATE and ECOREGION Working Groups of EFSA PPR

The activities realized in 2010 by JRC as a support of the FATE and the ECOREGION EFSA PPR Working Groups are shortly described. For the FATE WG, the vast majority of data has been provided during the first year 2009) of the SLA, and in 2010 the daily weather data, for the six selected sites, were produced. All the data used for the scenario selection procedures, with additional data on land use-land cover, crop distribution, soil and climate parameters, will be made available for external user in first half of 2011. For the ECOREGION WG the analysis has been carried out for three Member States covering a North-South gradient (Finland, Germany, Portugal). Soil and weather data have been used for the characterisation of biogeographic sampling sites, and for the implementation of the ecoregion model. Ecoregion maps were produced for earthworms and enchytraeids (only Finland and Germany) and revealed marked differences between the countries. The same approach has been applied also to Collembola and Isopoda, but for these two taxa led to a rather poor discrimination both between and within countries.JRC.DDG.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

MARS Bulletin Vol 17 No 1

The annexed document is the template for the bulletin that will be issued on the 10th March. This bulletin covers meteorological analysis and crop yield forecasts for the period 21 November 2008 - 28 February 2009 (since the day after the last covered period, to the last day of the decade before)JRC.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resource

MARS Bulletin Vol 18 No 1

The annexed document is the template for the bulletin that will be issued on the 9th March. This bulletin covers meteorological analysis and crop yield forecasts for the period 1st November 2009 to 28 February 2010JRC.DG.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resource

A quality approach to real-time smartphone and citizen-driven food market price data: The case of Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa (FPCA) in Nigeria

Timely and reliable monitoring of commodity food prices is an essential requirement for the assessment of market and food security risks and the establishment of early warning systems, especially in developing economies. However, data from regional or national systems for tracking changes of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa lacks the temporal or spatial richness and is often insufficient to inform targeted interventions. In addition to limited opportunity for [near-]real-time assessment of food prices, various stages in the commodity supply chain are mostly unrepresented, thereby limiting insights on stage-related price evolution. Yet, governments and market stakeholders rely on commodity price data to make decisions on appropriate interventions or commodity-focused investments. Recent rapid technological development indicates that digital devices and connectivity services are becoming affordable for many, including in remote areas of developing economies. This offers a great opportunity both for the harvesting of price data (via new data collection methodologies, such as crowdsourcing/crowdsensing — i.e. citizen-generated data — using mobile apps/devices), and for disseminating it (via web dashboards or other means) to provide real-time data that can support decisions at various levels and related policy-making processes. However, market information that aims at improving the functioning of markets and supply chains requires a continuous data flow as well as quality, accessibility and trust. More data does not necessarily translate into better information. Citizen-based data-generation systems are often confronted by challenges related to data quality and citizen participation, which may be further complicated by the volume of data generated compared to traditional approaches. Following the food price hikes during the first noughties of the 21st century, the European Commission's Directorate General for International Cooperation and Development (DG DEVCO) started collaborating with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) on innovative methodologies for real-time food price data collection and analysis in developing countries. The work carried out so far includes a pilot initiative to crowdsource data from selected markets across several African countries, two workshops (with relevant stakeholders and experts), and the development of a spatial statistical quality methodology to facilitate the best possible exploitation of geo-located data. Based on the latter, the JRC designed the Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa (FPCA) project and implemented it within two states in Northern Nigeria. The FPCA is a credible methodology, based on the voluntary provision of data by a crowd (people living in urban, suburban, and rural areas) using a mobile app, leveraging monetary and non-monetary incentives to enhance contribution, which makes it possible to collect, analyse and validate, and disseminate staple food price data in real time across market segments.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate - 2008 Indicator Based Assessment

Background and objective This report is an update and extension of the 2004 EEA report 'Impacts of Europe's changing climate'. Since 2004, there has been much progress in monitoring and assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe. The objectives of this report are to present this new information on past and projected climate change and its impacts through indicators, to identify the sectors and regions most vulnerable to climate change with a need for adaptation, and to highlight the need to enhance monitoring and reduce uncertainties in climate and impact modelling. To reflect the broadening of coverage of indicators and make use of the best available expertise, the report has been developed jointly by EEA, JRC and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Global developments in science and policy The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4th Assessment report reconfirmed and strengthened earlier scientific findings about key aspects of climate change. Increased monitoring and research efforts have enhanced understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability. At the 2007 Bali climate change conference, the urgency of responding effectively to climate change through both adaptation and mitigation activities was recognised by a larger number of countries than ever before. The EU has proposed a target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. A post-Kyoto regime that would include both adaptation and mitigation is expected to be agreed by end of 2009. There has been progress in implementing the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, developed to help countries improve their understanding of climate change impacts. European developments in science and policy European research on impacts and vulnerability in the context of national programmes and the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes has advanced considerably, making a major contribution to international assessments such as those of the IPCC, the Arctic Impact Assessment, the UNEP Global Outlook for Ice and Snow and WHO reports. New research programmes focusing on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation are currently being developed in many member countries and in the context of the 7th Framework Programme. On the policy side, the European Commission published its Green Paper on adaptation in 2007, to be followed by a White Paper by the end of 2008 with concrete proposals for action. This report The main part of this report summarises the relevance, past trends and future projections for about 40 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report). The indicators address atmosphere and climate, the cryosphere, marine systems, terrestrial systems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, soil, water quantity (including floods and droughts), water quality and fresh water ecology, and human health. After a brief introduction, several chapters deal in a general way with the changes in the climate system and the observed and projected impacts. The report ends with chapters on adaptation and the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies and policies, and data availability and uncertainty.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies